Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.

The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China, February 2023

Objective: To assess the risk of public health emergencies occurring in China (except Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan Province, the same below) or possibly imported from outside China in February 2023. Methods: Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference. Results: The number of public health emergencies to be reported in February 2023 is expected to increase compared to former month. In February 2023, affected by immune escape and reinfection of Omicron variants XBB, CH and other possible emerging subtypes, it is expected that the COVID-19 may become endemic in more areas of the world. In China, because of the increased flow of people after the Spring Festival and the opening of schools, the possibility of the spread of the virus will increase. The influenza viruses activity level may increase in February, and influenza A (H1N1) is more likely to be the main influenza virus. Conclusion: Special attention is given to COVID-19, and general attention is given to seasonal influenza.

SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance Through China Influenza Surveillance Information System - China, December 1, 2022 to February 12, 2023.

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO) proposed using influenza surveillance systems to carry out coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance due to the similarity between the two diseases in some respiratory symptoms. To assess the prevalence of COVID-19, we analyzed the influenza-like illness (ILI) and positive rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detections in ILI patients reported to the influenza Surveillance Information System (CNISIS) since late 2022. Methods: Data related to ILI were reported by national surveillance sentinel hospitals. Positive testing for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses was conducted using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) detection by the national influenza surveillance network laboratories. Surveillance data were reported to CNISIS. Results: Beginning on December 12, 2022 (Week 50), the ILI percentage increased dramatically, peaking in Week 51 at 12.1%. Subsequently, the ILI percentage began to decline rapidly from Week 52, 2022, and by Week 6, 2023 (February 6-12), the ILI and ILI percentage had returned to the levels observed at the beginning of December 2022. From December 1, 2022 to February 12, 2023, 115,844 specimens were tested for both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. Of these, 30,381 (26.2%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 1,763 (1.5%) were positive for influenza virus. The positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 tests peaked at 74.1% around December 23 and 25. Conclusions: Sentinel-based surveillance, previously established for influenza, is an effective way to track the circulation trend of SARS-CoV-2 during community-level epidemics. There was no co-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus during the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, even during the winter influenza season. However, it is important to remain vigilant for the potential rise of influenza activities following the COVID-19 epidemic.

Surveillance and Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Variant Importation - China, January-June 2022.

Introduction: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant is the dominant circulating strain worldwide. To assess the importation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the mainland of China during the Omicron epidemic, the genomic surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 from imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the mainland of China during the first half of 2022 were analyzed. Methods: Sequences submitted from January to July 2022, with a collection date before June 30, 2022, were incorporated. The proportions of SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as the relationships between the origin and destination of each Omicron imported case were analyzed. Results: 4,946 sequences of imported cases were submitted from 27 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs), and the median submission interval was within 1 month after collection. In 3,851 Omicron sequences with good quality, 1 recombinant (XU) and 4 subvariants under monitoring (BA.4, BA.5, BA.2.12.1, and BA.2.13) were recorded, and 3 of them (BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1) caused local transmissions in the mainland of China later than that recorded in the surveillance. Omicron subvariants dominated in the first half of 2022 and shifted from BA.1 to BA.2 then to BA.4 and BA.5. The percentage of BA.2 in the imported SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data was far higher than that in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). The imported cases from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, accounted for 32.30% of Omicron cases sampled, and 98.71% of them were BA.2. Conclusions: The Omicron variant showed the intra-Omicron evolution in the first half of 2022, and all of the Omicron subvariants were introduced into the mainland of China multiple times from multiple different locations.

Genetic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 from cross-border trucks and containers in Kashgar Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Kashgar is a prefecture in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. China. Kashgar Prefecture (KP) is a land-cargo port connecting China with central Asian countries and Europe. Frequent transportation of cargo has increased the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) introduction into China, which has increased the pressure on coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control. In November 2020, an imported virus-induced COVID-19 outbreak occurred in KP. To investigate the genetic characterization of SARS-CoV-2 that contaminated the trucks and containers, and the potential of border rapid logistics system to serve as carriers for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, thirty-five SARS-CoV-2-positive nucleic-acid samples collected from KP cross-border trucks and containers from 6-10 November 2020 were subjected into SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing and comparative analyses. The results showed that the median (minimum to maximum) Ct value of ORF1ab was 37.64 (28.91-39.81) . and that of the N gene was 36.50 (26.35-39.30), and the median (minimum to maximum) of the reads mapping ratio to SARS-CoV-2 was 51.95% (0.86%-99.31%), which indicated low viral loads in these environmental samples. Eighteen of 35 samples had genomic coverage >70%. According to the Pango nomenclature, 18 SARS-CoV-2 sequences belonged to six lineages (B.1, B.I.1, B.1.9. B.1.1.220, B.1.153 and B.1.465), three of which (B.I. B.1.1 and 8.1.153) were found in case samples from the same period of four China-neighboring countries. Analyses of nucleotide mutations and phylogenetic trees showed that the genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 collected from the same location were similar. Four of 18 sequences were in a sub-lineage with the representative strain of COVID-19 outbreak in KP, one of which had 1 or 2 differences in nucleotide mutation sites with the strain that caused the COVID-19 outbreak in KP, which indicated high homology in the viral genome. We showed that cross-border trucks and containers were contaminated by various genotypes of SARS-CoV-2 from other countries during the outbreak in KP. and in which contained the parental virus of the KP cases. These trucks and containers served as carriers for SARS-CoV-2 introduction from other countries to cause local transmission. Our results provide important references for COVID-19 prevention-and-control strategies in border ports and tracing of outbreak sources in China.

Seroprevalence of influenza viruses in Shandong, Northern China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been commonly deployed to prevent and control the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), resulting in a worldwide decline in influenza prevalence. However, the influenza risk in China warrants cautious assessment. We conducted a cross-sectional, seroepidemiological study in Shandong Province, Northern China in mid-2021. Hemagglutination inhibition was performed to test antibodies against four influenza vaccine strains. A combination of descriptive and meta-analyses was adopted to compare the seroprevalence of influenza antibodies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall seroprevalence values against A/H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2, B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata were 17.8% (95% CI 16.2%-19.5%), 23.5% (95% CI 21.7%-25.4%), 7.6% (95% CI 6.6%-8.7%), and 15.0 (95% CI 13.5%-16.5%), respectively, in the study period. The overall vaccination rate was extremely low (2.6%). Our results revealed that antibody titers in vaccinated participants were significantly higher than those in unvaccinated individuals (P < 0.001). Notably, the meta-analysis showed that antibodies against A/H1N1pdm09 and A/H3N2 were significantly low in adults after the COVID-19 pandemic (P < 0.01). Increasing vaccination rates and maintaining NPIs are recommended to prevent an elevated influenza risk in China.

Genomic Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern from Imported COVID-19 Cases - the Mainland of China, 2021.

Introduction: After the epidemic in Wuhan City was brought under control in 2020, local outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China were mainly due to imported COVID-19 cases. The ongoing evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continued to generate new variants. Some have been designated as variants of concern (VOCs) by the World Health Organization (WHO). To better assess the role of imported SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and the prevalence of VOCs in 2021, the genomic surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 from imported COVID-19 cases of 2021 in the mainland of China were analyzed. Methods: The analyses included the number of sequence submissions, time of sequence deposition, and time of detection of the VOCs in order to determine the timeliness and sensitivity of the surveillance. The proportions of VOCs were analyzed and compared with data from the Global Initiative of Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). Results: A total of 3,355 sequences of imported cases were submitted from 29 provincial-level administrative divisions, with differences in the number of sequence submissions and median time of sequence deposition. A total of 2,388 sequences with more than 90% genomic coverage were used for lineage analysis. The epidemic trend from Alpha to Delta to Omicron in imported cases was consistent with that in the GISAID. In addition, VOCs from imported cases were usually identified after WHO designation and before causing local outbreaks. Conclusions: The global distribution of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs changed rapidly in 2021. Robust genomic surveillance of the imported SARS-CoV-2 in the mainland of China is of great significance.

Epidemiological and virological surveillance of influenza viruses in China during 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, seasonal influenza activity declined globally and remained below previous seasonal levels, but intensified in China since 2021. Preventive measures to COVID-19 accompanied by different epidemic characteristics of influenza in different regions of the world. To better respond to influenza outbreaks under the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed the epidemiology, antigenic and genetic characteristics, and antiviral susceptibility of influenza viruses in the mainland of China during 2020-2021. METHODS: Respiratory specimens from influenza like illness cases were collected by sentinel hospitals and sent to network laboratories in Chinese National Influenza Surveillance Network. Antigenic mutation analysis of influenza virus isolates was performed by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Next-generation sequencing was used for genetic analyses. We also conducted molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of circulating influenza viruses. Viruses were tested for resistance to antiviral medications using phenotypic and/or sequence-based methods. RESULTS: In the mainland of China, influenza activity recovered in 2021 compared with that in 2020 and intensified during the traditional influenza winter season, but it did not exceed the peak in previous years. Almost all viruses isolated during the study period were of the B/Victoria lineage and were characterized by genetic diversity, with the subgroup 1A.3a.2 viruses currently predominated. 37.8% viruses tested were antigenically similar to reference viruses representing the components of the vaccine for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza seasons. In addition, China has a unique subgroup of 1A.3a.1 viruses. All viruses tested were sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors and endonuclease inhibitors, except two B/Victoria lineage viruses identified to have reduced sensitivity to neuraminidase inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza activity increased in the mainland of China in 2021, and caused flu season in the winter of 2021-2022. Although the diversity of influenza (sub)type decreases, B/Victoria lineage viruses show increased genetic and antigenic diversity. The world needs to be fully prepared for the co-epidemic of influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus globally.

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, December 2021

Objective: To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in December 2021.

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, August 2021

Objective: To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in August 2021.

Epidemiological and Virological Surveillance of Seasonal Influenza Viruses - China, 2020-2021.

INTRODUCTION: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza virus declined globally and remained below previous seasonal levels. We analyzed the results of the epidemiology, antigenic, and genetic characteristics, and antiviral susceptibilities of seasonal influenza viruses isolated from the mainland of China during October 5, 2020 through September 5, 2021, to better assess the risk of influenza during subsequent influenza season in 2021-2022. METHODS: Positive rates of influenza virus detection during this period were based on real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection by the Chinese National Influenza Surveillance Network laboratories, and isolated viruses from influenza positive samples were submitted to the Chinese National Influenza Center. Antigenic analyses for influenza viruses were conducted using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. Next-generation sequencing was used for genetic analyses. Viruses were tested for resistance to antiviral medications using a phenotypic assay and next-generation sequencing. RESULTS: In southern China, the influenza positivity rate was elevated especially after March 2021 and was higher than the same period the previous year with the COVID-19 pandemic. In northern China, influenza positive rate peaked at Week 18 in 2021 and has declined since then. Nearly all isolated viruses were B/Victoria lineage viruses during the study period, and 37.3% of these viruses are antigenically similar to the reference viruses representing the vaccine components for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. All seasonal influenza viruses were susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors and endonuclease inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza activity has gradually increased in the mainland of China in 2021, although the intensity of activity is still lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic. The diversity of circulating influenza types/subtypes decreased, with the vast majority being B/Victoria lineage viruses. The surveillance data from this study suggest that we should strengthen influenza surveillance during the upcoming traditional influenza season. It also provided evidence for vaccine recommendations and prevention and control of influenza and clinical use of antiviral drugs.

Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.

COVID-19 Outbreak Caused by Contaminated Packaging of Imported Cold-Chain Products - Liaoning Province, China, July 2020.

What is known about this topic? Few major outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in China after major non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccines have been deployed and implemented. However, sporadic outbreaks that had high possibility to be linked to cold chain products were reported in several cities of China.. What is added by this report? In July 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Dalian, China. The investigations of this outbreak strongly suggested that the infection source was from COVID-19 virus-contaminated packaging of frozen seafood during inbound unloading personnel contact. What are the implications for public health practice? Virus contaminated paper surfaces could maintain infectivity for at least 17-24 days at -25 ℃. Exposure to COVID-19 virus-contaminated surfaces is a potential route for introducing the virus to a susceptible population. Countries with no domestic transmission of COVID-19 should consider introducing prevention strategies for both inbound travellers and imported goods. Several measures to prevent the introduction of the virus via cold-chain goods can be implemented.

Influenza activity during the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 in Chinese mainland.

Since coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) might circulate in the following seasons, it is essential to understand how COVID-19 influences other respiratory diseases, especially influenza. In this study, we analyzed the influenza activity from mid-November 2019 to March 2020 in Chinese mainland and found that the influenza season ended much earlier than previous seasons for all subtypes and lineages, which may have resulted from the circulation of COVID-19 and measures such as travel control and personal protection. These findings provide rudimentary knowledge of the co-circulation patterns of the two types of viruses.

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Used to Control COVID-19 Reduced Seasonal Influenza Transmission in China.

To suppress the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government has implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Because COVID-19 and influenza have similar means of transmission, NPIs targeting COVID-19 may also affect influenza transmission. In this study, the extent to which NPIs targeting COVID-19 have affected seasonal influenza transmission was explored. Indicators of seasonal influenza activity in the epidemiological year 2019-2020 were compared with those in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019. The incidence rate of seasonal influenza reduced by 64% in 2019-2020 (P < .001). These findings suggest that NPIs aimed at controlling COVID-19 significantly reduced seasonal influenza transmission in China.